STORY OF THE WEEK: Here is Why Your Church Will Die Within the Next Five Years
100,000 churches will close within a generation. Will yours be one of them?
In the next thirty years, one hundred thousand churches in the USA will shut their doors for good. This is the prediction of Rev. Mark Elsdon, author of “Gone for Good?: Negotiating the Coming Wave of Church Property Transition.”
Let that sink in.
One hundred thousand churches.
And this is not just some pie-in-the-sky projection. Elsdon explained that the “100,000 figure is an estimate based on current trends in worship attendance.” In fact, research from Faith Communities Today, found the median congregation in the United States stood at 65 people, down from 137 two decades ago.
Yes, you could fit the average congregation on a single bus.
Predicting which churches will survive, and which churches will not, is a bit like reading tea leaves. However, there are certainly some quantifiable risk factors for churches backed by a raft empirical and circumstantial data. In fact, I could probably predict whether or not your church will still be around in five years, ten years or thirty years.
Could your church be among the 100,000?
Chances are high, particularly if your church exhibits one or more of these red flags.
Your Church has less than 75 adults
Let’s start with the obvious: Does your church have less people than ten years ago? Five years ago? Two years ago? If so, it could have entered the church death spiral.
As the pews grow emptier and the once vibrant halls echo with silence, it’s a clear sign of a disconnect between the church and its community, a fading engagement with its mission, and a struggle to remain relevant in a rapidly changing world.
But here’s the harsh truth: declining attendance isn’t solely a spiritual concern — it has practical implications too. Consider the upkeep of the building. According to Christianity Today, as attendance drops below a critical threshold, fewer than 75 tithing adults to be precise, supporting the wages of a full-time church employee, let alone maintaining the building, becomes increasingly challenging, if not impossible, putting essential ministries and the physical structure of the church at risk.
As the staff diminishes, the workload increases, and the risk of neglecting the property becomes ever more imminent. In this scenario, the vitality and sustainability of the church’s physical and spiritual presence are both threatened.
Half empty pews, unkempt gardens and half-baked sermons from well-meaning but overworked staff or volunteers. Sure, appearances aren’t everything, but it’s hard to ignore the stench of death that lingers around a church in its twilight.
Your Church’s pastor is over 50
Take a look around your church. Is there an over-representation of senior citizens? Does it feel like you’re just two or three funerals away from losing a critical mass?
Sure, having older church members is important for bringing wisdom and experience to the community, but it also poses significant challenges, particularly when it comes to sustainability and growth.
A fascinating study conducted by NCD America over nearly a decade, surveyed an impressive 9,500 congregations, and found that a whopping 54% of the pastors are 50 or older. But, what’s even more interesting is that they discovered a direct link between the age of the pastor and the age of the regular churchgoers. The pastor sets the tone, and the congregation follows suit. The older the pastor, the older the average congregant.
Why does that matter?
Churches with older pastors exhibited minimal growth trends, with the likelihood of significant expansion virtually non-existent. Additionally, these congregations struggle to attract families with children, adolescents, and young adults to their services to replenish the ranks as existing members transition into retirement from active church involvement.
When a church skews towards an older demographic, it grapples with some significant hurdles. Older members, often on fixed incomes, may find it challenging to contribute financially as they once did. Additionally, they might not be as actively engaged in volunteering in church programs and activities, exposing the church to a workforce shortage.
Moreover, as time passes, natural attrition within the aging demographic further compounds the decline, leading to a gradual decrease in overall attendance. This decline is particularly concerning when juxtaposed with flailing church attendance among younger generations, who are increasingly drawn to personalized spiritual practices outside traditional religious structures.
However you dice it, if your church is disproportionately over-represented by older people, it may be on borrowed time. And an aging pastor should always be looking to pass the baton to the next generation to create the possibility of renewal.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Backyard Church to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.